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Di Balik Manuver Dua Kubu di Libya

March 11th, 2011 - Posted in Berita Utama, International

TIDAK sebagaimana revolusi rakyat di Tunisia dan Mesir yang berakhir dengan melegakan meskipun tetap menelan korban jiwa, namun situasi di Libya kelihatannya lebih kompleks dan sulit. Situasi hingga tiga minggu lebih sejak unjukrasa anti rejim meletus 17 Februari lalu mengarah kepada kondisi yang makin tidak jelas karena kedua kubu (rejim dan revolusioner) masih sulit untuk saling mengatasi dengan kekuatan militer sehingga warga sipil yang paling menderita akibatnya.

Batalion-batalion dari unsur keamanan terlatih yang masih setia kepada rejim disamping pasukan angkatan udara (AU) ditambah lagi dengan tentara bayaran terutama dari sejumlah negara Afrika, dilihat dari sisi persenjataan dan ketrampilan tempur memang lebih unggul dari kaum muda revolusioner dan tentara yang membelot. Apalagi selama ini dikenal tentara Libya tidak begitu terlatih baik sebab Qadhafi lebih menfokuskan pada batalion keamanan selaku pelindung rejim yang dipimpin oleh putra-putranya dan keluarga dekat kepercayaannya.

Diperkirakan jumlah batalion keamanan yang masih setia sekitar 10 ribu personil dengan persenjataan yang jauh unggul dari kelompok revolusioner. Namun salah satu kelemahannya adalah spirit, sebab pertempuran yang mereka lakukan adalah bukan melawan musuh tapi rakyat sendiri sehingga ditengarai mereka kadang-kadang sengaja meluputkan sasaran dan yang lebih demoninan bertempur adalah tentara-tentara bayaran.
Di lain pihak, kelompok revolusioner bersama tentara yang membelot sangat kekurangan senjata berat. Mereka masih mampu mengimbangi dikarenakan semangat tempur dan dukungan sebagian besar rakyat Libya disamping dukungan internasional kepada Dewan Transisi Nasional pimpinan mantan Menteri Kehakiman, Mustafa Abdul Jalil yang kian hari makin banyak negara yang menyatakan dukungannya.

Kondisi seperti demikian, menyebabkan sangat sulit dari kedua belah pihak untuk saling mengalahkan. Memang sebagian besar wilayah negeri seluas 1,7 juta km2 itu telah dikuasai kelompok revolusioner yang didukung tentara yang membelot dari rejim Qadhafi, namun sebagian rakyat terutama kabilah (suku) asal Qadhafi dan suku-suku lainnya yang berkoalisi dengannya masih belum menentukan sikap tegas mendukung mundurnya rejim yang telah berkuasa sekitar 42 tahun itu.

Seruan demi seruan yang dilakukan sejumlah tokoh Libya baik di dalam maupun di pengasingan bersama sejumlah ulama terkemuka Arab semisal Syeikh Yusuf Al-Qaradhawi agar seluruh rakyat menentang rejim tak begitu berpengaruh paling tidak hingga saat ini karena fanatik suku nampaknya masih berperan sebagai salah satu faktor penentu mengapa Qadhafi masih bersikeras bertahan. Bahkan sejak beberapa hari lalu, ia aktif mengirim utusannya ke mancara negara terutama Mesir dan sejumlah negara Eropa untuk mengimbangi upaya kelompok revolusi mendapat pengakuan internasional.

Sebagian kabilah yang selama ini dimanjakan rejim dan punya kepentingan terhadap langgengnya rejim sekarang, memang sangat sulit untuk diajak melawan bersama kubu revolusi. “Keinginan sebagian kabilah agar rejim tetap bertahan sama dengan keinginan rejim untuk mempertahankan legitimasi kekuasaannya,” papar sejumlah analis.

Berbagai upaya dari kedua kubu tersebut, kelihatannya tidak akan dengan sendirinya segera mengakhiri pertumpahan darah dan kerugian materi yang dialami negeri yang memiliki cadangan minyak terbesar di Afrika dengan penduduk hanya 6,5 juta jiwa itu.

Bahkan sejak, Rabu (9/3) angkatan udara Qadhafi telah menyerang kilang minyak yang sejauh ini dikuasi oleh para penentang rejim yang mengisyaratkan tekadnya untuk membumihanguskan setiap target yang bisa menjadi kekuatan kaum revolusioner.

Sebenarnya faktor dukungan dalam negeri terutama dari seluruh suku yang ada, paling menentukan siapa akhirnya yang akan segera memenangkan perang saat ini meskipun hampir dipastikan bahwa kemenangan pada akhirnya akan berpihak kepada gerakan perubahan status quo. Tapi yang menjadi permasalahan serius adalah kemenangan tersebut jangan sampai dicapai dengan korban jiwa dan kehancuran mengerikan.

Pembagian peta kekuataan masing-masing kubu saat ini yang terpecah menjadi bagian wilayah pantai timur pendukung revolusi dan wilayah pantai bagian barat sebagai basis dukungan Qadhafi mengingatkan kembali kepada sejarah negeri itu. Disini kita menyebutkan wilayah pantai, mengingat 80 % penduduk negeri itu hidup di daerah-daerah sekitar pantai sebab sebagian besar wilayah pedalaman adalah gurun pasir.

Kedua wilayah tersebut hingga pertengahan abad 20 (tahun 1950-an) masih terpisah secara budaya dan politik. Raja Idris Al-Sanusi baru dapat menyatukannya di bawah Kerajaan Libya Bersatu yang tidak lama setelahnya dikudeta Qadhafi dan kawan-kawan yang selanjutnya tetap membiarkan negara dalam bentuk loyalitas kepada suku-suku.

Faktor loyalitas kepada suku tersebut oleh banyak analis Arab yang menyebabkan revolusi di Libya tidak berjalan damai seperti halnya negeri jirannya di Tunisia dan Mesir. Bila batalion Qadhafi menang (jauh dari kemungkinan) maka dipastikan pembunuhan akan berlanjut, sementara bila kaum revolusioner menang (lebih dekat kepada kenyataan) maka dipastikan akan terjadi balas dendam atas para tentara dan suku yang setia kepada Qadhafi yang dianggap sebagai penyebab keterpurukan mereka selama 42 tahun.

Dengan keluarnya status upaya perubahan di Libya sebagai revolusi damai, itu berarti, kedua skenario tersebut diatas akan mengakibatkan genangan darah masih akan berlanjut apalagi kaum  revolusioner saat ini telah merebut banyak senjata dari gudang-gudang senjata yang ditinggalkan rejim. Mereka juga telah mendapat pelatihan militer cukup memadai dari para tentara Libya yang membelot dari rejim.

Apabila kondisi ini berkepanjangan atau dengan kata lain rejim bersikeras mempertahankan kursi kekuasaan maka lambat laun dapat mengarah kepada perang saudara berkepanjangan. “Kondisi saat ini sangat mengkhawatirkan karena tidak ada kubu yang akan dapat segera mengatasi kubu lain dengan kekuatan militer sehingga dapat mengarah kepada perang saudara yang lebih mengerikan,” papar sejumlah analis dan pakar militer Arab.

Upaya manuver

Ditengah pertumpahan darah yang masih sengit, setiap kubu berusaha melakukan manuver untuk melemahkan kubu lainnya. Kubu Qadhafi misalnya melakukan manuver dengan menghembuskan isu keinginannya untuk lengser dengan syarat dia dan keluarganya bebas memilih negara pengasingan tanpa dikejar tuntutan hukum oleh kubu revolusioner. Bahkan dilaporkan, ia telah mengirim utusannya ke Benghazi, pusat kekuasaan kubu revolusi untuk membicarakan hal itu.

Tujuan utama isu lengser tersebut adalah untuk memecahbelah barisan kubu revolusioner karena dengan kondisi sekarang yang sudah berdarah-darah maka sulit bagi rakyat untuk memaafkan rejim yang telah menyebabkan ribuan orang korban jiwa. Rejim berharap perpecahan dalam kubu revolusi akan sangat penting artinya untuk mengembalikan kepercayaan rakyat yang selanjutnya dapat merebut kembali wilayah-wilayah yang telah dikuasai kubu revolusi.

Berbagai isu yang dicoba dihembuskan dan masih terus dihembuskan rejim hingga saat ini seperti isu al-Qaidah, ancaman dari gerakan Islam garis keras dan ancaman bagi keamanan Israel bila rejim jatuh, sudah tidak laku dijual termasuk di luar negeri. Di dalam negeri isu Al-Qaidah dan gerakan garis keras hanya menjadi bahan tertawaan, di luar negeri isu tersebut pun sudah semakin tidak mempengaruhi dukungan Barat terhadap kubu revolusi.
Menghadapi manuver tersebut, kubu revolusi, Selasa (8/3) membalasnya dengan manuver serupa berupa ultimatum kepada rejim untuk mundur dari kursi kekuasaan dalam batas waktu 72 jam (3 hari). Ketua Dewan Transisi Nasional, Mustafa Abdul Jalil menyampaikan ultimatum tersebut dengan alasan untuk menghentikan pertumpahan darah yang kian hari semakin melimpah.

Dalam ultimatum tersebut disebutkan bahwa Qadhafi bebas menentukan negara yang akan menjadi tujuan pengasingan dan tidak akan dikejar tuntutan hukum atas serangkaian kejahatan yang dilakukan selama ini terhadap rakyat selama 42 masa kekuasaannya sebagai imbalan atas pengehentian bombardemen. Banyak pihak khawatir bila ultimatum tersebut menyebabkan perpecahan dalam kubu revolusi.

Tapi kekhawatiran tersebut nampaknya tidak pada tempatnya karena dipastikan, sebagai manuver tandingan yang oleh kubu revolusi menyebutnya sebagai “iqamatul hujjah“(tuntutan pembalikan argumen) terhadap rejim. Karena bila keadaan makin parah yang akhirnya menyebabkan intervensi asing terjadi maka yang bertanggungjawab adalah rejim yang telah diberikan kesempatan untuk mundur secara terhormat tanpa khawatir akan dikejar tuntutan hukum.

Sebagian analis juga melihat bahwa ultimatum tersebut semata-mata iqomatul hujjah atas rejim sebab kubu revolusi sangat yakin rejim yang masih haus kekuasaan dan merasa masih banyak rakyat yang mencintainya tanpa melihat di lapangan bila mayoritas rakyat ingin perubahan status quo, tidak akan semudah itu mundur. Intinya, ultimatum kubu revolusi juga sebagai test case (uji kasus) sejauh mana sang rejim bertekad mempertahankan kekuasaan karena dipastikan tidak akan bersedia lengser secara sukarela.

Tapi ultimatum tersebut dapat pula dipahami sebagai peringatan bahwa intervensi internasional tidak akan terhindarkan apabila rejim yang memiliki keunggulan senjata termasuk pesawat tempur dan helikopter serta berbagai senjata berat lainnya bersikeras melanjutkan serangan yang menyebabkan angka korban terutama di kalangan sipil terus meningkat. Paling tidak 72 jam sebagai standar batas waktu bagi internasional untuk bertindak lebih jauh.

Indikasi ke arah itu sudah mulai nampak dimana negara-negara kawasan Teluk yang tergabung dalam Dewan Kerjasama Teluk (GCC) dan Organisasi Konferensi Islam (OKI) telah mengisyaratkan persetujuan terhadap pemberlakukan larangan terbang di Libya. Alasan dukungan larangan terbang tersebut adalah untuk melindungi warga sipil, dengan catatan tetap menolak intervensi militer secara langsung.

Serangan dahsyat dari pasukan rejim yang menyebabkan korban jiwa terus bertambah juga akan membuka jalan bagi sebagian besar negara Arab, mau tidak mau akan mengadopsi persetujuan dimaksud yang direncanakan dibahas pada pertemuan darurat tingkat Menlu Liga Arab, Sabtu (12/3) di Kairo. Bila intervensi terjadi meskipun sebatas larangan terbang maka yang dilimpahkan tangungjawab atas intervensi tersebut adalah rejim sehingga manuver kubu revolusi yang memberi ultimatum 72 jam mengenai sasaran.

Menyusut

Seperti disebutkan sebelumnya, pasukan pro Qadhafi memang berhasil merebut kembali sebagian wilayah yang diduduki kubu revolusi berkat keunggulan senjata, tapi peluang untuk terus mempertahankan kekuasaan kian menyusut. Pasalanya keunggulan tersebut justeru semakin memancing campur tangan asing termasuk dengan mengirim senjata canggih kepada kubu revolusi.

Tapi pada waktu yang sama, juga dapat merugikan kubu revolusi karena akan dianggap sebagai alat untuk menancapkan kekuasaan Barat di negeri Mujahid Omar Mukhtar itu meskipun sejatinya rejim yang paling bertanggungjawab atas intervensi tersebut karena tidak mengindahkan tuntutan perubahan yang diinginkan mayoritas rakyat.

Rejim sejak dini telah memanfaatkan peluang itu untuk melakukan kampanye menyudutkan kubu revolusi dengan menyebutnya sebagai pengkhianat besar yang membawa agenda imperialisme baru di Libya. Bila kampanye ini manjur paling tidak di kalangan kabilah yang masih mendukung dan pasukan yang setia, maka akan memperpanjang pertumpahan darah.

Jika hal itu terjadi maka krisis Libya akan semakin kompleks dimana banyak kepentingan yang akan saling berebut pengaruh apalagi bila faktor ekonomi menjadi alasan utama yang menyebabkan dua kekuatan dunia, Rusia dan China bisa berbalik mendukung rejim. Bila dua kekuatan besar dunia itu mendukung, tidak menutup kemungkinan keduanya menggunakan hak veto di DK PBB terkait intervensi asing di Libya .

Banyak pihak berharap terjadi kejutan agar Libya terhindar dari intervensi asing yang hanya akan merugikan revolusi rakyat negeri ini. Kejutan yang dimaksud adalah kesediaan rejim meninggalkan kursi kekuasaan secara legowo guna menghindari pertumpahan darah yang makin meluas dan menghadang intervensi asing dimaksud yang hanya akan menciptakan derita panjang bagi rakyat.*/Sana`a, 5 R. Thani 1432 H

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